Common Sense Says She Wins, Jay Kuo (sorry, Substack):
ten reasons why I remain cautiously optimistic:
1. The Gender Gap
2. Older women voters
3. Enthusiasm favors Democrats
4. The favorability factor
5. The Latino vote
6. The youth vote
7. Closing weak v. closing strong
8. The Ground Game
9. Trump has bet on young male voters
10. About those polls
It's worth a read.