Polls have been pretty inaccurate in the past few years.
There are a lot of possible reasons for this - one popular theory is that most people don't answer phone calls from unknown callers anymore - but whatever the cause, it's remarkable that polls have gotten so many recent elections so wrong. Just a few examples:
- The March 2024 polls for the Super Tuesday primary races were way off - for example, polls predicted Trump would win Vermont by around 30 points, but he actually lost the state to Haley.
- In Alabama, polls showed Democrat Marilyn Lands and Republican Teddy Powell were pretty much tied - but Lands ended up winning by 25 points, with 62% of the vote to Powell's 37%.
- Predictions for the 2024 elections in the UK and France were very different from the actual results.
This site tracks some of the recent polls that turned out to be very wrong.
As you read, remember:
The polls in today's headlines may be very wrong about the actual results of an election.
Polling is hard, and it's getting harder. So don't let the polls convince you that an election is already won or lost.
If an election is important to you, the best thing you can do is urge people to vote.