Jay Kuo quoted Professor Justin Wolfers about the Virginia primary:
In Virginia, according to the 538 polling averages, Trump was supposed to beat Haley by 49 points. Instead he won by a little over 28 points. That’s a huge polling miss of 21 points.
Here's Wolfers' post on Twitter (X):
By my count Trump's actual margin in the primaries has underperformed that predicted by the polls by:
0-5%: AL, IA, TX
6-10%: CA, ME, NH, SC
10-15%: MA, MI, OK, TN, UT
16-20%: -
20% or more: MN, VA, VT (an astonishing 34%)...and he outperformed pre-primary polling only in NC.